Down the Middle East Path to the Future

There have been some drastic developments in the Middle East that just may send the path ahead onto some unforeseen tangent. Those who follow this and are reputed to be far smarter than I have been pointing to the three major players, in possible order of importance, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt as the countries to watch in order to predict what is coming. Well, OK, I cannot argue with their logic though I doubt Egypt will have anything beyond a peripheral affect. So I guess that leaves the big two, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Many of the experts believe that we have the most productive influence by working with Saudi Arabia to hold Iran in check. Well, I do not think so. The Saudis will do what they feel is necessary to retain their perceived position as the top dog in the fight, but only as far as it does not require them to use actual force. On the other hand, Iran is willing to do whatever is needed to gain the top dog position. They would not even shy away from actual aggressive violence though they would use proxies to shield themselves from direct involvement.

Part of the Iranian best possible plan is for the United States and allies to pull their forces from Iraq and, if luck should have it, Afghanistan. Iran knows that this is not likely in the near term and are they not waiting for this to instigate their projection of control over much of the Middle East. What has seemingly escaped coverage is that the confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia has already started in earnest.

The first sign was the offering by Iran of safe haven for al-Queda leaders as well as clandestine training facilities. This move has had the effect of al-Queda now serving two masters, both the Saudi radicals as well as Iran. Currently we are looking at a somewhat divided loyalty in al-Queda where one sizeable minority owes its deference to their Saudi money masters while another sizeable minority being beholden to Iran for financing and other support. This divide seemingly falls along the divide where al-Queda’s operations in the Afghanistan and even Pakistan are under the influence of Iran, while al-Queda operating in Iraq and much out of the Sunni controlled areas of the Middle East is under Saudi influence. Outside of the Islamic areas it seems al-Queda works with whichever between Saudi Arabia and Iran is willing to support and finance them. This confusion of which arm of al-Queda we are facing often leads to a muddled response from the United States and Allies which often weakens our actions by delaying them until we ascertain who is behind each effort.

We have also been almost totally silent to Iran’s exercising ever growing influence over the Iraqi government through the majority Shia religious parties. Iran is also playing both ends against the middle while we get to play the part of the middle. They directly arm, train, supply, and assist the Shia militias and other Shia groups to commit violence against the United States, our allies, and the nascent Iraqi security forces. On the other side, the Iranians employ their puppet ally Syria. Through Syria they can arm, train, supply, and assist the Sunni militias and al-Queda in Iraq in their efforts against the United States, our allies, and the nascent Iraqi security forces. Even though the two disparate forces contesting for control in Iraq are not actually cooperating in their efforts, they are being orchestrated to bring about the utmost carnage, destruction, and disorder in order to thwart the Allied efforts. This effort does appear to be working as an ever-growing section of the citizens of the West doubt the wisdom and commitment to the efforts in Iraq. This also sets up for the eventual control by Iran of Iraq being set up swiftly upon our departure.

Iran is not resting while waiting for the West to give up and pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan. Oh no! They are employing their puppets Syria and Hezballah to destabilize Lebanon. Barring an awakening to this threat by the West and the sign of at least minimal degree of commitment in support of Siniora government, we will see Lebanon turned into Syria West. Hezballah has already stated their intentions to establish an alternate government if the present government does not acquiesces to Hezballah’s demand to be given the control of the reigns of power. Meanwhile, Syria has called all their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately and return to the safety in Syria. Further, Syria has deployed additional troops on the Lebanon border; some are even as much as three kilometers over the Lebanese border. The time is getting close for Hezballah to open up the hostilities against the standing government in Lebanon thus giving Syria the pretense to enter to end the chaos and return a sense of order to Lebanon. We ignore the signs at our own risk, a minimal risk, as Lebanon is not valued as an important faction of this ongoing Middle East wide war beyond the adverse effect such a take-over would present to Israel.

Talking of Israel, they are the final part of this puzzle along with both factions of the Palestinians, Hamas and Fatah. Oddly enough, the only party in this melee that could be considered to be with Saudi Arabia is Israel. Let me try to explain the whys and wherefores of this seemingly absurdity. All can agree that Hamas is lock-step and wholeheartedly in the Iranian camp. Hamas sends their “soldiers” to Iran, Syria, and Hezballah for training in weapon use and tactics. Iran, with some degree of complicity of Egypt by turning a blind eye, is also sending arms, explosives, anti-tank weapons, anti-aircraft weapons, IED’s, and even embedding personnel into Hamas in Gaza. Even the Gaza revolution was called for by Iran, though they covered their tracks to a sufficient extent. Over on the West Bank Fatah is split in their allegiances. The political leaders are, for the most part, loyal to the Saudis and receive both monetary and diplomatic assistance in return. The more radical military wings of Fatah tend towards falling into the Iranian influence for which they get tactical, financial, and other general support. Only Israel is devoted to opposition of Iran and its growing influence and thus on the same side, though not allied with, Saudi Arabia. The West is also supporting the political arm of Fatah, which has had some supposedly unexpected consequences. Fatah recently admitted that they plan to use the tax credits Israel is releasing to their control to pay the security forces in Gaza. So we will have Fatah using monies released by Israel to pay Hamas security forces. That just makes my head spin. The biggest concern in the “occupied territories” is who will win the tug-of-war for control of Fatah and their military and security forces, Saudi Arabia or Iran. All we can do is sit and watch in horror. No amount of bribes disguised as aid will affect the result.

To sum up, we are watching a Middle East wide civil war between Saudi Arabia and Iran for control of the reigns of the terror warriors employed to fight the West. The one outcome that would be most ominous would be for some form of shared control between Iran and Saudi Arabia. In my opinion, this least desirable outcome is the most likely end result of the current affairs. I believe it is not only possible but it is probable that the Sunni and Shia will reach an accord to put away their mutual distrust and conflicts in order to defeat the West. The best we will be able to hope for is that they have an uneasy relationship with numerous rough spots and plenty of bumps. Things will definitely get more dangerous if the marriage of convenience is consummated between the Shia and Sunni forces and interests. Let the games begin.

Beyond the Cusp