Significant Political Segment Misrepresented

Now that we are well into the start of another extended election cycle many polls are published categorizing the American electorate. We are told that we are fairly closely split on the Iraq War and that we are somewhat more supportive of the Afghanistan War. Some attribute this to less coverage given to any attacks, terrorist acts, or other violence on one front than the other. We are also told that President Bush has approval numbers below thirty percent. This is usually attributed to the opposition of his execution of the WOT; especially in Iraq and the way Bush handles the confrontation over Iran’s nuclear activities. Most of these reports imply that the opposition to President Bush, the WOT, the Iraq war, the Iran crisis, and related issues favor reduction in troop levels, disengagement, redeploying elsewhere, or other means of avoidance of conflict and appeasement. Simply put, if you oppose Bush then you think we should limit our efforts to the home-fronts and have no purpose or pressing interest in these distant lands and their problems.

Now, the question, are these assumptions correct? I know if a pollster asked me if I approved how President Bush was handling almost any problem in the Middle East, I would definitely answer “No.” Now, does that response automatically place me in the cut and run appeasement crowd? Trust me when I tell you it most certainly does not. My problem with the current path and those taken to this point is we have misused the available forces, we have mistakenly erred on the side of a meek responses in order to avoid causing further damage, have not committed sufficient troops to control the situations as they appear, and have coddled the opposition rather than defeating it with haste and overt power. My bet is that I am far from alone in my views as many of my closest friends share this outlook. Even a fair number of my relatives, including a few liberal democrats, agree that had President Bush pressed our advantage at the outset we would be having fewer problems today.

My instinct, also known as a gut feeling, is that around 30% to 40% of the people who share my views tell pollsters that they approve of President Bush, our actions in the WOT, our execution of the war in Iraq, and the other related issues. That leaves 60% to 70% of this group telling pollsters they do not agree with our efforts in these areas. I would be willing to wager (gentleman’s wager, no cash, just bragging rights) that myself and others of similar view make up probably 10% to 25% of the totals of people included in the opposition group referred to in polls. Given this knowledge these polls would take on an entirely different electorate than has been assumed going into this election cycle. How much of my inner feelings prove true will be represented in early November 2008. I’m willing to wait and see. What are your gut feelings on this? Agree or think I’m all wet?

Beyond the Cusp